The recent cease-fire in Gaza, achieved on October 13, 2023, has opened a rare diplomatic opportunity in the Middle East. While fighting has ceased, the regional landscape remains fragile. The primary challenge for the West and its allies is to ensure that both Israel and Hamas adhere to the cease-fire and the framework established by the United States under President Trump’s Twenty Point Plan for long-term stability. In this context, involving Turkey in both economic and diplomatic processes could be pivotal, extending the influence of the Abraham Accords and fostering regional cooperation.
An important milestone was reached during the Sharm el-Sheikh summit, organized at the initiative of the United States. This event brought together various regional and international stakeholders to stabilize the cease-fire, establish a reconstruction mechanism for Gaza, and lay the groundwork for future cooperation. Turkey’s inclusion, albeit not as a primary mediator, signaled that Ankara is determined to remain a significant player in the ongoing discussions. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has reiterated Turkey’s commitment to humanitarian efforts, energy cooperation, and economic coordination that align with the objectives of the Abraham Accords.
The political landscape, however, is complex. Relations between Turkey and Israel have deteriorated to unprecedented lows. Rising public pressure in Turkey has compelled Erdoğan to adopt a firmer stance following the Gaza conflict, reflected in local elections held in March 2024. In response to this pressure, Ankara suspended trade with Israel in August 2023. Despite these tensions, Turkey and Israel have historically maintained trade and energy relations, with bilateral trade reaching approximately $7 billion in 2023, positioning Turkey among Israel’s top five trading partners.
As diplomatic avenues reopen, there is a significant opportunity to rehabilitate Turkey-Israel relations within a larger framework of regional integration. Incorporating Turkey into initiatives associated with the Abraham Accords—such as the East Mediterranean Gas Forum and the India–Middle East–Europe Corridor (IMEC)—could create overlapping economic interests. This would not only constrain potential conflicts but also encourage dialogue.
The exclusion of Turkey from such initiatives risks creating competing integration efforts instead of fostering a unified cooperative framework. In response to its dismissal from the IMEC project, Turkey announced a partnership with Iraq, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates to pursue an alternative known as the Development Road project. Continued marginalization of Turkey may deepen its ties with Moscow, Tehran, and Beijing, particularly concerning transport and energy routes.
The West also bears responsibility in this context. Constructive engagement with Turkey should not be mistaken for unconditional support for its policies. Instead, it is essential to recognize Turkey’s role in regional stability. Including Ankara in Gaza reconstruction efforts, transportation projects, and collaborative energy initiatives can mitigate economic fragmentation while reinforcing the rationale for cooperation stemming from the Abraham Accords.
Building trust remains the central challenge. Turkey aims to avoid marginalization, while Israel and other Arab nations fear excessive Turkish influence. To navigate this delicate situation, the United States, the European Union, and Gulf states must engage in nuanced diplomacy with Turkey. Targeted cooperation in areas such as economic development, green energy, water resources, digitization, and infrastructure can help foster a platform for rebuilding trust.
Involving Turkey in these initiatives will also convey a strong message to the Palestinian people that Gaza’s reconstruction is not solely an Israeli-Western endeavor but part of a comprehensive regional strategy. The experience of the Abraham Accords illustrates that when former adversaries establish channels of communication and trade, mechanisms for mutual restraint emerge.
Incorporating Turkey into the Abraham Accords is not only a logical progression but also essential for enhancing the geopolitical balance within the region. Turkey’s participation can elevate the accords beyond a mere normalization framework to a robust multilateral arrangement focused on regional integration.
Ultimately, the postwar Middle East must embrace new cooperative mechanisms. By positioning Turkey as an equal partner rather than a player to manage, the Abraham Accords could evolve into a dynamic model of integration, encompassing Gaza reconstruction, energy cooperation, and transport connectivity. If the West and its allies adopt this inclusive approach, the Sharm el-Sheikh Agreement could be remembered not only as a cease-fire but also as the inaugural step towards a more interconnected, stable, and prosperous Middle East.
