A recent survey conducted by Emerson College Polling indicates a notable preference among voters for moderate candidates in the upcoming 2028 presidential election. The analysis reveals that voters favor moderates over candidates identified with more extreme positions, such as “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) Republicans and progressive Democrats.
In the hypothetical matchups presented in the survey, a moderate Democrat led a MAGA Republican by 47% to 38%, while a moderate Republican outperformed a progressive Democrat with a score of 48% to 36%. This trend remained consistent among independent voters, highlighting a significant shift toward moderate preferences.
The survey results raise questions about the voting behavior of moderates. Jake Neiheisel, a political scientist at the University at Buffalo, pointed out that while voters express a preference for moderates, they often do not act on this inclination at the polls. He noted a trend towards what some have termed “leapfrog representation,” where voters oscillate between extremes rather than settling on moderate options.
Despite these complexities, Seth McKee, a politics professor at Oklahoma State University, argues that moderates possess a distinct advantage at the ballot box. He emphasized that moderate candidates are more likely to attract crucial swing voters, as partisan voters tend to remain loyal to their respective parties.
The conversation about moderates is further complicated by the nature of political primaries. Peter Loge, director of the School of Media and Public Affairs at George Washington University, explained that primary elections often favor more extreme candidates. This is due to the engagement of politically active voters who are typically more aligned with the far-right or far-left ideologies. As a result, moderate candidates may struggle to secure nominations.
Looking ahead to the 2028 election, Neiheisel anticipates a race between a progressive Democrat and a MAGA Republican. He believes that political parties may double down on the strategies that worked in the last election cycle. Conversely, McKee envisions a potential face-off between a moderate Democrat and a MAGA Republican, suggesting that the Democratic Party has a wealth of moderate talent emerging from gubernatorial positions.
Several potential candidates from the Democratic Party have been mentioned, including Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, Andy Beshear of Kentucky, and Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan. These figures could provide strong competition against a MAGA Republican candidate. In particular, McKee highlighted the challenge the Republican Party faces in finding a moderate candidate who can secure the nomination.
While Gavin Newsom, the governor of California, may be a strong progressive contender, McKee pointed out that his association with the “California liberal” label could hinder his appeal in the national primaries, especially with the early focus on Southern states.
Abigail Spanberger, recently elected governor of Virginia, has taken steps that indicate presidential aspirations, especially due to Virginia’s unique one-term limit on governors. McKee suggested that Spanberger could enter the race as a significant candidate given her experience and moderate stance.
On the Republican side, McKee speculated that Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State, might emerge as a leading moderate candidate in 2028. He posited that Rubio could be competitive against a progressive candidate like Newsom, emphasizing that voters may prefer a centrist matchup over extreme alternatives.
The findings of the Emerson College Polling survey reflect a complex landscape as the 2028 election approaches. While voters express a desire for moderate candidates, the dynamics of the political landscape and primary processes may influence the eventual nominees. The interplay between voter preferences and candidate appeal will likely shape the strategies of both major political parties in the years to come.
