UPDATE: Texas’ immigration debate is escalating as border crossings plummet, prompting a shift in political rhetoric among Republican candidates ahead of the March 3, 2025 primaries. Mario Guerrero, a construction leader from Edinburg, highlights the impact of heightened federal enforcement, which is causing significant disruptions in local businesses.
Guerrero, executive director of the South Texas Builders Association, states, “The whole workforce, whether people have proper documentation or not, they’re all scared. It’s affecting our businesses a lot.” This growing concern reflects a wider trend as federal raids disrupt daily operations, leaving employers struggling to maintain productivity.
While immigration remains a potent issue for Texas voters, the landscape is shifting. Recent data show that border crossings have sharply declined, leading candidates to focus on enforcement measures. Republican incumbents, including Senator John Cornyn, Attorney General Ken Paxton, and U.S. Representative Wesley Hunt, are rallying around ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) operations, emphasizing strict enforcement over comprehensive immigration reform.
The political stakes are high as candidates aim to energize their conservative base. Paxton has signed agreements formalizing Texas’ cooperation with federal immigration directives, praising Trump’s enforcement policies. He argues that strong action is essential for national security, stating, “I stand by him in restoring national sovereignty, securing the border, and ensuring criminal aliens face justice.”
In contrast, Democratic candidates like U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett and state Representative James Talarico are focusing on the negative impacts of aggressive enforcement. They argue that increased scrutiny from federal agents is leading to labor shortages and raising civil liberty concerns. Talarico asserts, “We can welcome immigrants while still tracking entries and maintaining security,” advocating for a balanced approach to immigration policy.
The surge in ICE apprehensions—up 132% nationally from January to October 2025 compared to the previous year—has intensified scrutiny of enforcement tactics. The fatal shooting of a civilian during an ICE operation in Minneapolis has further fueled the debate, with critics arguing that aggressive measures harm communities and local economies.
Polling indicates that while illegal immigration is a significant concern, voter attitudes are complex. Many Texans express anxiety about border security but also recognize the economic contributions of immigrants. This mixed sentiment could alter the effectiveness of the GOP’s enforcement-heavy messaging in the upcoming general election.
Guerrero’s perspective underscores the human impact of these policies. He notes that the fear generated by federal crackdowns is palpable among workers, regardless of their immigration status. “People are just thankful somebody took a leadership role…so that their lives could return to some semblance of normal,” says Wayne Hamilton, a GOP strategist in South Texas.
As the political landscape evolves ahead of the primaries, candidates are shaping their strategies based on the shifting dynamics of immigration enforcement. With Texas voters increasingly attentive to both security and economic issues, how candidates navigate these complexities will be crucial for their electoral success.
What’s Next: All eyes will be on the March 3, 2025 primaries, where immigration enforcement strategies will likely play a pivotal role in shaping the outcomes for both parties. As the situation develops, the impacts of federal enforcement will continue to resonate throughout Texas politics, making this a critical moment for candidates and voters alike.
