A recent study projects that the number of Russian and Ukrainian military personnel killed, wounded, or missing due to the ongoing war will approach 2 million by spring 2024. Conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a Washington-based think tank, the report highlights a staggering disparity in casualties between the two nations. According to the CSIS findings, Russia has incurred approximately 1.2 million casualties, while Ukraine’s toll stands at around 600,000.
Moscow has reportedly lost close to 325,000 soldiers since the conflict began in February 2022. This figure starkly contradicts Russian President Vladimir Putin‘s claims of an imminent victory, as noted by Seth Jones, the study’s principal author. He remarked, “No major power has suffered anywhere near these numbers of casualties or fatalities since World War II.”
At the current rate of conflict, Russia is experiencing an average of 35,000 troops killed or injured each month. Projections indicate that by 2025, casualties could reach as high as 415,000 in Russia alone. Historical comparisons further illustrate the gravity of the situation; Russia has lost more than 17 times the number of soldiers than during its 1980s offensive in Afghanistan and 11 times the losses incurred in the First and Second Chechen Wars. Furthermore, the current death toll exceeds five times the total casualties from all Russian and Soviet military conflicts since World War II.
The study attributes the high casualty rate to several factors, including Russia’s inadequate strategic planning, insufficient troop training, and low morale, compounded by Ukraine’s robust defense efforts. Ukraine has faced significant losses as well, with estimates of 100,000 to 140,000 soldiers killed, which represents a considerable sacrifice given its smaller military size.
The report underscores Russia’s military strategy, which has been described as sending troops into battle with the expectation that sheer numbers will eventually overwhelm Ukraine’s forces. “President Putin appears willing to continue to shed Russian blood for Ukraine,” Jones remarked, emphasizing that the high casualty rates do not seem to deter the Kremlin’s approach. Despite economic challenges, there is little indication that Russia will seek negotiations under terms favorable to Ukraine or European nations.
Interestingly, Jones pointed out that many of the soldiers who have lost their lives or been injured come from regions such as the Far East and North Caucasus, areas that are less politically significant to Putin compared to major cities like Moscow and St. Petersburg. This geographic disparity may influence the Kremlin’s willingness to accept such high casualty figures.
As the conflict persists, the pace of Russian military advancement has been notably slow. Jones indicated that Russian forces have moved at an average rate of only 15 to 70 meters per day during their most significant offensives, a speed that is slower than many historical military campaigns, including the infamous Battle of the Somme during World War I.
While neither Russia nor Ukraine publicly discloses their troop losses, the CSIS estimates align with figures reported by other experts in the United States and the United Kingdom. Despite the extensive casualties, Russia has managed to sustain its military presence through the implementation of its first drafts since World War II and the enlistment of convicted criminals and foreign fighters, including approximately 15,000 North Koreans.
As the war continues with no clear end in sight, the ramifications of this staggering loss of life will likely influence both nations and the broader geopolitical landscape for years to come.
