The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a notable shift as Bitcoin has surged past the crucial $90,000 mark for the first time in nearly a week. This rebound comes after a significant decline that saw Bitcoin drop from a record high of $126,080 in October to just under $81,000 late last week. Market participants are now hopeful that this uptick signals the end of a potential bear cycle.
The recent rally is characterized not by typical retail enthusiasm but by a broader recovery in risk assets, including technology stocks. Investors are encouraged by a reduction in volatility, which has enabled professional traders to push prices higher. A critical factor in this turnaround is the renewed interest in the BlackRock US Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF), which has begun to attract fresh capital inflows, reversing a trend of redemptions that had raised concerns about institutional interest.
Factors Influencing the Market’s Recovery
As the market digests the likelihood of a third interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve in December, investors are closely monitoring whether this recent price movement is a sustainable trend or merely a temporary respite. The brutal decline in Bitcoin’s price over the past month has been largely attributed to decreasing institutional interest and ongoing uncertainty regarding the Fed’s monetary policy.
Historically, cryptocurrencies have thrived during periods of lower interest rates, which diminish the attractiveness of safer assets like bonds. Following two rate cuts in September and October 2025, a growing consensus among market observers suggests that the Fed may proceed with a third cut at its final meeting of the year. Bond futures traders have significantly adjusted their expectations, with the probability of a quarter-point reduction now standing at 79%, a marked increase from earlier in the month.
This shift in sentiment is contributing to a broader increase in digital asset prices, which are now rising in tandem with equities. The resurgence of capital flows into the BlackRock ETF—an important indicator of institutional sentiment—further supports the bullish outlook. Notably, Bitcoin had dipped to its lowest level since April, nearly erasing all gains made in 2025 during a period marked by heavy selling that saw over $3.5 billion withdrawn from Bitcoin ETFs in November.
Looking Ahead: Thanksgiving and Beyond
The current rally is occurring just ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, a time when Bitcoin’s performance has historically been mixed. Over the last decade, the average return on Thanksgiving Day has been -0.8%. Nevertheless, the recent rally, which saw Bitcoin rise more than 5% on Wednesday, stands out as a significant deviation from past trends and offers hope for a reversal of fortunes.
Despite the current price of $90,035 (as reported by CoinGecko) being nearly 29% below the all-time high from October, analysts are cautiously optimistic. They had previously expressed concerns that a protracted bear market could be on the horizon, with some forecasts suggesting a potential drop to $69,000. The recent rebound, however, indicates that the worst of the decline may have passed.
For this rally to transition into a sustained uptrend, Bitcoin must decisively reclaim the $100,000 to $105,000 range. Current trading activity, marked by thin liquidity ahead of the holiday and subdued liquidation data, suggests that bullish traders are testing the waters to see if the worst is truly over. If Bitcoin can maintain its upward momentum, it could unlock significant double-digit gains for altcoins like Ethereum, Solana, and XRP, all of which experienced gains on Wednesday.
As the market navigates this uncertain landscape, the coming days will be crucial in determining whether this rally is the beginning of a new upward trend or merely a short-lived bounce in a challenging environment.
