The 2026 election cycle in California officially commenced on December 19, 2023, with candidate filing opening for the governor’s office, 52 congressional seats, and 100 positions in the state Legislature. This may signal one of the most unusual election years in the state’s history, putting California’s complex political dynamics under national scrutiny.
A significant number of Democrats are vying for the governorship, creating a scenario where a Republican could potentially secure the position, despite California’s historically Democratic-leaning electorate. The current political landscape suggests that with more Democratic candidates likely to enter the race, the competition could become increasingly fragmented.
Under California’s top-two primary election system, all candidates will appear on the same ballot for the June 2 primary. The two candidates with the highest vote percentages, regardless of party affiliation, will advance to the November election. Currently, two Republicans, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and former television commentator Steve Hilton, are in the mix. With more than a dozen Democrats expected to run, it is theoretically possible for Bianco and Hilton to secure the top two spots with as little as 10-15% of the vote each.
While the likelihood of a Republican victory remains slim, several factors contribute to the potential for an upset. The absence of a clear Democratic frontrunner and a lack of strong party leadership may create an opening for the GOP. Had former Vice President Kamala Harris or U.S. Senator Alex Padilla chosen to run, they would have likely emerged as immediate frontrunners. Their decision to sit out has left a notable void in the Democratic field.
Currently, former Congresswoman Katie Porter is leading among Democrats, although her support hovers at only double digits in the polls. Other contenders include former State Controller Betty Yee, while prominent figures like Lieutenant Governor Eleni Kounalakis and former State Senator Toni Atkins have opted not to run. Porter gained visibility during her recent unsuccessful bid for a U.S. Senate seat, positioning her as a notable candidate.
Another significant player is billionaire Tom Steyer, who has been actively campaigning with substantial financial resources. Steyer’s advertising strategy portrays him as a populist who criticizes “Sacramento politicians” and pledges to reduce electric bills, reminiscent of approaches taken by former President Donald Trump.
Beyond Porter, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and former Attorney General Xavier Becerra are also seen as strong contenders. Speculation continues regarding whether Attorney General Rob Bonta or Los Angeles businessman Rick Caruso will enter the race, adding further uncertainty to the Democratic field.
This level of unpredictability so late in the campaign cycle is uncommon. Analysts anticipate that by February or March, the Democratic candidates will begin to clarify their positions, allowing for a more accurate assessment of the most viable candidates as weaker contenders likely drop out.
As noted by former state Assembly Speaker and San Francisco Mayor Willie Brown, the current field lacks the expected caliber of candidates. He remarked, “The field is not considered of a quality that you as a Democrat would expect in California.”
With the election cycle still in its early stages, the coming months will be crucial for determining the potential outcomes in California’s political landscape as candidates solidify their positions and the electorate begins to engage more deeply in the race.
