New York Governor Kathy Hochul maintains a significant lead over Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, with a recent Siena Poll indicating Hochul at 54% and Blakeman at 28% among registered voters. This marks a slight increase from the December poll, which showed Hochul leading 50% to 25%. The poll was conducted from January 26 to 28, 2024, and surveyed 802 registered voters, holding a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points.
Democratic Dominance and Favorability Ratings
Among registered Democrats, Hochul’s support is even more pronounced, garnering 64% against 11% for her opponent, Antonio Delgado, the current Lieutenant Governor. This represents a rise from 56% to 13% in December. Hochul’s favorability rating has also improved, reaching 49%, up from 43% in the previous poll, marking the first time she has achieved a favorability rating of 49% during her tenure as governor.
The Siena Poll highlights six proposals from Hochul that enjoy broad support among voters, with backing ranging from 58% to 68%. Notably, four of these proposals have bipartisan support. These include eliminating the state income tax on the first $25,000 earned in tips, which received 68% approval, and increasing childcare funding by $1.7 billion, with a support level of 66%.
Steven Greenberg, a Siena pollster, emphasized the significance of Hochul’s favorability rating. He stated, “While a 49-40% favorability rating is not generally seen as something to gloat about, for Hochul it is a net seven-point gain from December.” This improvement is notable as it reflects the highest level of support she has received throughout her governance.
Challenges for Blakeman
Blakeman faces a considerable challenge as he remains relatively unknown to approximately 60% of New York voters. His favorability rating is currently at 18%, a modest improvement from 13% in December. In contrast, Hochul leads with a job approval rating of 54%, an increase from 52% in the previous poll. The survey indicates that Hochul has a significant advantage among independent voters, leading Blakeman 41% to 34%.
Greenberg highlighted that Hochul has achieved at least 60% support among Democrats across all regions of the state. This widespread backing is essential as New York gears up for the mid-term elections. Hochul’s proposals resonate with voters, and many legislators seeking re-election would benefit from aligning their campaigns with her initiatives.
Public Sentiment on Immigration and Trump
The Siena Poll also explored voter attitudes toward the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), revealing a favorability rating of just 28%, with 67% expressing disapproval of the agency’s tactics. While 43% of voters support deporting immigrants living in the U.S. illegally, a significant majority, 61%, oppose the methods employed by ICE.
On a national level, former President Donald Trump continues to struggle with favorability, holding a rating of 33% to 63%. His job approval rating remains similarly low at 34% to 63%. Greenberg noted that New York voters have consistently viewed Trump unfavorably, reflecting a long-standing trend since his initial presidential campaign in 2016.
As the political landscape evolves in New York, Hochul’s solid lead and the public’s response to her proposals may shape the outcome of the upcoming elections. The Siena Poll underscores the importance of voter sentiment and the strategies candidates will adopt as they navigate the complex dynamics of New York’s political environment.
