As Week 13 of the fantasy football season approaches, several players are trending towards increased targets, according to analysis from Pro Football Focus (PFF). The insights stem from a newly developed framework that utilizes machine learning, drawing on PFF’s extensive route-level data to predict target distribution on the field.
The model, which incorporates an XGBOOST algorithm, generates metrics such as Share of Predicted Targets and Share of Predicted Air Yards. These metrics are proving to be more stable than traditional statistics, offering a clearer picture of where targets should ideally go during a game.
Week 12 Highlights
In the most recent week of play, notable performances included Parker Washington, who secured seven targets, achieving a target share of 23.33%. Khalil Shakir also shone with ten targets, amounting to a 32.26% target share. Conversely, Isaiah Williams did not receive any targets, experiencing a significant drop in route participation. Overall, the model identified three players with target shares exceeding 20% in Week 12, all of whom outperformed their season averages.
Looking Ahead to Week 13
As the analysis shifts to potential breakout candidates, players who were frequently open yet under-targeted in Week 12 are highlighted. These individuals typically see an increase in their targets per route run. A prime example is D.K. Metcalf, who faced the Chicago Bears and was often found in open space, suggesting he could see a significant uptick in targets moving forward.
The discussion also extends to defensive metrics, particularly examining how well defenses have been performing this season. The concept of effective yards per attempt allowed, or expected points added (EPA), provides insights into how defenses are impacting offensive opportunities. Defenses like the Houston Texans and Los Angeles Rams have demonstrated exceptional ability in minimizing potential EPA allowed, illustrating a shift towards more zone-heavy strategies.
According to data, the average potential EPA facing defenses is at its lowest since records began in 2019. This indicates a broader trend in NFL defenses adopting tactics that limit offensive scoring opportunities, a change first noted by PFF analyst Seth Galina back in March 2021.
Key Plays and Missed Opportunities
In examining specific plays, one standout moment involved Jameis Winston and Wan’Dale Robinson. During a critical point in the game, Robinson executed a precise post route, gaining separation against man coverage. Despite earning a strong PFF grade for the play, Winston could not connect due to pressure from Al-Quadin Muhammad. Instead, he found Theo Johnson, who capitalized on the situation, resulting in a 39-yard gain that set up a crucial scoring opportunity for the New York Giants.
As fantasy managers prepare for Week 13, these insights could prove invaluable for making informed lineup decisions. With players like Metcalf likely to see increased targets and defenses evolving in their strategies, the dynamic landscape of the NFL continues to offer surprises and opportunities for both teams and fantasy enthusiasts alike.
