URGENT UPDATE: The Big Island is bracing for a potentially dry rainy season as forecasters express skepticism about above-average rainfall predictions. Despite a recent uptick in rainfall, Tina Stall, a hydrologist with the National Weather Service, warns that the island remains under severe drought conditions, particularly in East Hawaii.
Officials report that while Hilo International Airport received 8.4 inches of rain in October—80% of its monthly average—East Hawaii remains critically dry. The region is experiencing moderate drought or worse, with most of the island suffering from water shortages. “If it does pan out, you could see some sort of improvement in the drought,” Stall noted, emphasizing that the outlook for the Big Island is less optimistic compared to other parts of the state.
The NOAA Climate Prediction Center had previously indicated enhanced probabilities of above-normal rainfall for Hawaii through early spring. However, Stall’s warning suggests that the Big Island may not receive the expected relief. “Most of the island is under moderate drought or worse, with the exception of the Kona district,” she explained.
The 2025 dry season has already been marked as the third driest in the past three decades, trailing only the years 2010 and 2007, according to Stall. Between October 22 and 24, strengthening trade winds exacerbated fire dangers across the Big Island, leading to multiple Red Flag Warning days. Fire Chief Kazuo Todd has ramped up staffing to combat wildfires, stating, “When you go into a Red Flag period, we have an operating procedure.” His department has been vigilant, responding to increased fire activity, particularly in the Hamakua region, where a fire has burned approximately 500 acres.
Despite the ongoing drought, some areas, such as the Kona coffee belt, have seen above-average rainfall during the summer months. However, rainfall totals dropped sharply in October. Waiaha recorded 51.91 inches, more than double its average, but other gauges fell below expectations. “We’ve seen some rain up in the Kaala fire region,” Todd mentioned, expressing cautious optimism about transitioning into the wet season.
The forecast from the Climate Prediction Center suggests that if above-normal rainfall occurs, it could significantly improve drought conditions statewide by the end of the wet season in April. “With them calling for above-normal rainfall, we can only hope that comes true,” Stall concluded.
Residents of the Big Island are urged to stay informed as these conditions develop, with local authorities on high alert for fire risks and water shortages. Share this urgent update to keep others informed about the potential impacts on the community.
