BREAKING: A new Yale Youth Poll reveals that if the presidential election were held today, Vice President JD Vance would emerge as the leading Republican candidate with a staggering 51% of support. California Governor Gavin Newsom stands as the top contender for the Democrats, capturing 25% of voter preference. This urgent update underscores a significant shift in the political landscape just ahead of the 2028 election.
The poll, conducted by Verasight, surveyed 3,426 registered voters between October 29 and November 11, 2025. It finds Vance far ahead of his closest rival, Donald Trump Jr., who trails by a whopping 43 points, while Florida Governor Ron DeSantis holds a mere 6% of support. Notably, 79% of respondents believe DeSantis could win the general election against a Democrat, with 71% expressing the same sentiment for Vance.
In a hypothetical scenario where former President Donald Trump runs for a third term, he leads with 50% support, leaving Vance at just 19% and all other candidates at 5%. Alarmingly, only 20% of voters aged 18-22 would support Trump, while a majority over 45 still favor him.
On the Democratic side, Newsom’s 25% support positions him ahead of formidable challengers like former Vice President Kamala Harris at 18%, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 16%, and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 14%. The poll indicates varying levels of support among demographic groups, with Ocasio-Cortez leading among Democrats under 35 with 32% support.
The analysis highlights a stark difference in support among Democrats, with 85% viewing Newsom as the strongest candidate against a generic Republican in the general election. This suggests a growing consensus on electability among party members, pointing to a potentially competitive primary season.
The Yale Youth Poll reflects a significant voice from younger voters, with 1,706 participants aged 18-34 contributing to the results. The margin of error stands at +/- 1.7 points, indicating a reliable snapshot of voter sentiment.
As the political landscape evolves rapidly, all eyes will be on these frontrunners. The implications of this poll could reshape campaign strategies and voter mobilization efforts leading into the 2028 election. Stay tuned for more updates as this story develops.
