As the United States approaches the midterm elections in 2026, political experts forecast a continuation of low legislative activity in Congress, following a sharp rise in executive orders issued by President Donald Trump. According to Todd Belt, a political management program director at George Washington University, lawmakers are unlikely to assert themselves significantly in the lead-up to the elections, as they often adopt a risk-averse approach during this critical period.
The trend is evident this year, with Trump signing a total of 225 executive orders, surpassing the total from his first term within just 11 months. In contrast, Congress has recorded the lowest legislative output in the first year of a new presidency in modern history. The Washington Post, citing data from C-SPAN and Purdue University, reported that only 38 bills were passed and signed into law by December 19, 2025. Following a few additional signings, the total reached just 44 bills, contrasting sharply with the 76 laws signed during Trump’s first year and 68 laws during President Joe Biden’s first year.
Casey Burgat, legislative affairs program director at GW, emphasized the lack of appetite for legislative action, noting that while Republicans control both chambers of Congress and the White House, the narrow margins in both the House and Senate hinder significant accomplishments. He indicated that intra-party divisions within the Republican Party complicate the legislative process, as differing priorities among factions can stall agreement on specific policies. This situation has enabled Trump to govern largely through executive orders, allowing the party to claim policy victories while avoiding difficult legislative negotiations.
Political dynamics may further complicate Republican messaging leading into the midterms. Seth McKee, a politics professor at Oklahoma State University, pointed out that the GOP’s flagship legislation, termed the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” is not resonating well with the public. He noted that while candidates in solidly red districts may align themselves with the president’s policies, those representing swing districts face a tougher challenge in appealing to a broader electorate.
Democrats, having no control in Washington, are poised to capitalize on the narrative of a “do-nothing Congress” as they campaign for the 2026 elections. Burgat described this strategy as a familiar tactic for minority parties, although he expressed skepticism about its effectiveness in motivating voters. He suggested that broader concerns, particularly regarding the economy and public sentiment towards Trump, are likely to play a more significant role in shaping voter behavior.
Historically, the party of the sitting president has faced losses in the House during midterm elections, with data showing that this has occurred in eight of the last ten elections over the past 40 years. In the 2018 midterms, Trump’s Republicans lost 40 House seats. Presently, the Cook Political Report has identified just 17 of 435 House seats as toss-ups for the upcoming elections, while only two Senate seats are in a similar position. Experts suggest that these trends may provide Democrats with an opportunity to regain control of the House.
Despite the low legislative output, experts have noted that the GOP’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” is substantial in its scope, incorporating numerous policy priorities into one piece of legislation. Charles Hunt, a politics professor at Boise State University, highlighted a shift toward omnibus legislation in Congress, where multiple priorities are condensed into single bills. He argued that this approach can create the appearance of reduced legislative activity, even if total policy output remains significant.
Hunt remarked on the challenges faced by Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, characterizing him as ineffective due to the unique pressures from both far-right and more centrist members of his caucus. He acknowledged that Trump has diminished the legislative branch’s power, but stated that Congress has begun to take steps to reclaim some authority. Recent legislative actions have included votes to compel Trump to release documents related to the Epstein case and efforts to ban stock trading for members of Congress.
As the current fiscal year progresses, Congress still faces the need to pass crucial spending bills. Belt does not anticipate much activity beyond budget-related matters in 2026, although he noted potential exceptions could emerge if court rulings impact Trump’s executive powers. He mentioned that expiring Obamacare subsidies may also prompt lawmakers to revisit pertinent issues, as public pressure could drive legislative action.
The political landscape ahead of the midterms remains complex, with both parties strategizing to address voter concerns while navigating the intricacies of their respective positions.
