In a significant move for military preparedness, the U.S. Department of Defense is reviving the concept of the Nifty Nugget, a 47-year-old military exercise aimed at assessing the mobilization of U.S. forces in response to high-intensity conflicts. The revival comes through a provision in the fiscal 2026 National Defense Authorization Act signed by President Donald Trump in early December 2023. This act mandates a study focused on Reserve force mobilization, addressing the military’s capability to respond effectively to potential conflicts in the Indo-Pacific region.
The original Nifty Nugget exercise took place in 1978 and aimed to simulate a scenario where the U.S. would need to mobilize all its forces globally. Despite its intent, the exercise revealed significant flaws in planning and logistics, resulting in delays for up to half a million troops and leading to 400,000 casualties in the notional conflict. Although the exercise had shortcomings, it did yield valuable insights, prompting the establishment of the U.S. Transportation Command in 1987.
The current provision requires the Secretary of Defense and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff to work alongside the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command to evaluate military readiness specifically for scenarios involving the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, and similar flashpoints. This assessment comes amid escalating threats from China regarding Taiwan, heightening concerns about a possible conflict.
The required study will also analyze several critical components, including the military’s strategic lift capabilities, logistics, and interagency coordination procedures. It will assess joint interoperability with allies such as Japan, Australia, the Philippines, and Taiwan. Furthermore, the study will compile an inventory of civilian skills within the military’s Reserve component, focusing on areas like foreign language proficiency, advanced degrees, and skills in high-demand fields such as cybersecurity.
A report from this study is expected within two years, detailing findings and best practices, and providing data on the availability of reservists to support active units during the initial phases of a conflict. The analysis will project how many reservists might be necessary to sustain operations at home during a major war in the Pacific.
This initiative follows a 2024 report from the Center for a New American Security, which examined the U.S. military’s ability to mobilize conscripts if a major conflict were to arise. The study highlighted that, under optimal conditions, it would take approximately seven months to mobilize 100,000 conscripts. However, without ideal circumstances, this process could extend to three-and-a-half years.
The challenges associated with renewing the draft are distinct from those of activating reservists, who already possess military training. Nonetheless, both scenarios share common obstacles, such as ensuring personnel meet medical and dental deployment prerequisites. The report emphasized the need for the National Security Council to conduct full-scale mobilization exercises every two years to ensure readiness for potential conflicts.
Katherine Kuzminski, the primary author of the CNAS report, explained that although she cannot pinpoint the exact motivation behind the new NDAA provision, she had previously briefed the Senate Armed Services Committee about her findings, advocating for the importance of mobilization trials. She noted, “When Nifty Nugget was run back in 1978, the headline from it was, it was a total failure. But as an exercise, it was not a failure. The point of the exercise is to expose where all the gaps and problems would be if you were in a crisis situation.”
Kuzminski underscored that the inclusion of this study requirement in the defense policy bill demonstrates lawmakers’ serious consideration of potential major conflicts in the Indo-Pacific. She also highlighted the often-overlooked human cost of warfare, noting that analyses focused on equipment and logistics frequently neglect the critical aspect of manpower requirements during conflicts.
The CNAS report also suggests that technology and societal changes, including the influence of social media, may impact the willingness of conscripts and members of the Individual Ready Reserve to comply with mobilization orders. Kuzminski remarked, “I think there are a lot of gaps and seams that will be uncovered in a 2025 scenario, just like we had in 1978.”
While the precise origins of the name “Nifty Nugget” remain unclear, this revival aims to address critical military readiness issues as the geopolitical landscape continues to evolve.
