Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is experiencing a significant decline in support from his long-time allies, Russia and China, as President Donald Trump intensifies military pressure on Caracas. Historically, both nations have offered military equipment, financial aid, and training to bolster Maduro’s regime against perceived American aggression. However, their current reluctance to fully support Venezuela reflects their own pressing military and economic challenges.
The shift in stance from Moscow and Beijing is evident as they face their respective crises. In 2018, Russia demonstrated its commitment by deploying two nuclear-capable bombers to Venezuela, a move intended to showcase a united front against the United States. Yet, as the conflict in Ukraine approaches its fourth year, Russian assistance has dwindled. According to Vladimir Rouvinski, an international relations professor at Icesi University, Russia has only delivered two oil tankers to aid Venezuela in exporting its crude oil to China. Rouvinski described these gestures as insufficient if the United States escalates its military actions against Venezuela.
Shifting Alliances and Economic Concerns
The apparent withdrawal of support from Russia and China comes at a time when Venezuela has strived to deepen its relationships with these countries and others as a counterbalance to the West. Maduro’s predecessor, Hugo Chávez, had successfully utilized the nation’s abundant oil and mineral resources to secure substantial loans and agreements with China, Russia, Cuba, and Iran, aimed at improving the country’s infrastructure. However, the alliance began to deteriorate following a sharp decline in oil production and increasing civil unrest after Maduro assumed office in 2013. The situation was further complicated when the United States imposed sanctions on Venezuela’s oil industry in 2019.
China stands to lose significantly if Maduro’s government collapses, having invested over $30 billion in arms and equipment to support Caracas since the year 2000, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. This investment underscores the stakes for Beijing, which has been careful to navigate its diplomatic relations with the Trump administration.
In a recent wave of desperation, Maduro sought assistance from both Russia and China following the accumulation of US military forces in the Caribbean. Reports from the Washington Post indicate that Maduro directly requested defensive radars, aircraft repairs, and potentially missiles from Russian President Vladimir Putin. Simultaneously, he appealed to Chinese President Xi Jinping for enhanced military cooperation to confront the escalating threats from the United States.
Geopolitical Implications
The current geopolitical landscape mirrors past scenarios, such as the situation in Iran during the brief conflict over the summer, where both Russia and China were criticized for their limited support to Tehran amid American-Israeli military actions. The hesitancy of these nations to fully back Maduro’s regime reflects their desire to maintain stable relations with the United States, an approach that Rouvinski emphasizes by stating that neither Russia nor China will further assist Maduro beyond their current commitments.
As the situation develops, the implications for Venezuela’s political future remain uncertain. The shifting dynamics of international alliances, compounded by domestic challenges, could further isolate Maduro’s government. The outcome of these geopolitical maneuvers will have lasting effects not only within Venezuela but also across the broader Latin American region.
